by Dennis Crouch
IPR institution rates under Director John Squires have begun to climb. My tracking data shows the six-week moving average rising from lows around 15% in August and September 2025 to somewhere in the range of 35-55% by late December 2025 and into January 2026. The rebound remains far below the historic average of roughly 67% that prevailed before Acting Director Coke Morgan Stewart began centralizing discretionary denial authority followed by Director Squires assumption of personal control of all institution decisions in October 2025.
Still, the uptick signals something meaningful: the IPR system is not dead, and a discernible framework for institution has begun to emerge from what initially appeared to be an era of blanket denials. The patterns in recent grants reveal that Director Squires is operating with something resembling an equitable framework that requires petitioners to go beyond the statutory "reasonable likelihood" threshold to encompass broader considerations of fairness and systemic efficiency. The USPTO's recent designation of numerous institution decisions as precedential or informative in early January 2026 provides additional clarity about the principles the Office considers settled enough to guide future practice.